顾及GRACE季节影响的华北平原水储量变化反演     

李圳  章传银  柯宝贵  刘阳  李婉秋  尹财 《测绘学报》2018,47(7):940-949

基于移去-恢复方法,利用GRACE卫星重力数据研究了华北平原2003年1月—2014年6月的陆地水变化,提出了一种顾及季节影响尺度因子计算方法,用于减小GRACE后处理误差。将本文方法所得结果与水文模式和降水模型结合进行比较分析,结果表明：2008年之前华北平原发生比较明显的干旱现象,陆地水和地表水分别以（-7.9±2.4）mm/a和（-7.3±2.8）mm/a的速度下降,但地下水仅以（-0.6±1.4）mm/a的速度减少;2008年之后,陆地水和地表水分别以（4.3±1.3）mm/a和（10.9±2.1）mm/a的速度上升,期间地下水的超采严重,平均以（-6.5±1.2）mm/a的速度下降,但下降速度以0.9 mm/a²的趋势减缓。研究期间内,华北平原的陆地水、地表水和地下水整体分别呈现（-2.0±0.6）、（2.9±0.7）和（-4.8±0.7）mm/a的变化趋势。最后,利用交叉小波谱分析了GRACE滞后于降水的现象。研究结论表明,降水和地下水开采是影响华北平原水储量变化的两大决定性因素。  相似文献   

川滇区域活动块体运动与应变特征地震影响分析     

党亚民  杨强  梁诗明  王伟 《测绘学报》2018,47(5):559-566

本文利用川滇1999—2007、2009—2015年GNSS实测速度场,通过引入平移-旋转-应变模型,构建该区域地震前后的活动块体运动和应变模型,有效对块体运动和块体的应变特征进行了分离,并据此分析了该区域地震前后块体运动和应变特征。结果表明,巴颜喀拉和羌塘块体东向运动有明显增大趋势;汶川地震后川滇块体与羌塘块体边界带相对挤压运动明显增大,巴颜喀拉-华南块体边界带南段形成了较大的挤压应变,川滇块体与华南块体相对运动没有明显变化。  相似文献   

山西芦芽山地区树木年轮记录的1676 AD以来5～7月温度变化   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

易亮  刘禹  宋惠明  李强  蔡秋芳  杨银科  孙军艳 《冰川冻土》2006,28(3):330-336

在山西芦芽山地区采取了符合国际树轮库要求的油松样本,通过交叉定年和应用区域生长模型,建立长度为328 a的标准宽度年表.根据RCS序列所揭示的气候低频变化特征,确定1676 AD以来夏季温度可划分为两个时段:1676—1865 AD和1866—2003 AD.在1676—1865 AD时期,夏季温度变化主要表现为“冷强暖弱”,其中1710—1720s为最冷时段.1866—2003 AD时期,夏季温度呈现出“总体持续变暖,冷暖交替频繁”的变化特征.  相似文献   

Coupling analysis of surface runoff variation with atmospheric teleconnection indices in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River     

Wang  Wenyu  Yang  Peng  Xia  Jun  Zhang  Shengqing  Cai  Wei 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,148(3-4):1513-1527

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Changes in surface runoff and its coupling relationship with atmospheric circulation have been an ongoing focus of climate change research. In this study, the...  相似文献   

Diurnal variations of rainfall affected by complex topography based on high-density observation in Chongqing over southwest China     

Li  Qiang  Zheng  Yongguang  Zhou  Guobing  Zhu  Yan  Liu  Chao  Liu  Yan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,148(3-4):1373-1394

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Located in the eastern edge of the Sichuan Basin (SCB) in the southwest China, Chongqing is a mountainous region with typical complex topographic features....  相似文献   

From China’s Heavy Precipitation in 2020 to a “Glocal” Hydrometeorological Solution for Flood Risk Prediction     

Huan WU  Xiaomeng LI  Guy J.-P.SCHUMANN  Lorenzo ALFIERI  Yun CHEN  Hui XU  Zhifang WU  Hong LU  Yamin HU  Qiang ZHU  Zhijun HUANG  Weitian CHEN  Ying HU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(1):1-7

The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China,particularly in the Yangtze River basin.Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China.Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China,India and the United States.Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain.Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies.  相似文献   

Semi-analytical solutions for vertically and laterally loaded piles in multilayered soil deposits     

Ling Zhang  Qiang Ou  Shuai Zhou  Minghua Zhao 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(2):51

In geotechnical practice, it is of considerable importance to assess the behavior of vertical–lateral coupled loading piles in multilayered soil deposits. This study deals with a semi-analytical formulation for the performance of a pile suffering from combined vertical and lateral loads. The emphasis is on quantifying the mobilization of the subgrade reaction provided by the layered soil stratums. In the proposed method, subgrade reactions, correlated with both the accumulative axial load transfer and side resistances depending upon the pile–soil interaction, are abstracted as a series of nonlinear springs in both vertical and lateral directions. On account of this, an alternative transfer matrix method is applied to characterize the pile reaction along the depth under the identified boundary conditions atop the pile; meanwhile, the condition of static equilibrium, between two specific pile segments located at the border of soil layers, is also essential. On this basis, validation of the solution is conducted by comparing with observations from experiments and predictions obtained from other existing methods. In addition, the influence of properties in shallow soil layer and the vertical load on the lateral response of the pile is also discussed. The results indicate a reduction in the lateral displacement and the maximum bending moment within the pile with the increase in the shallow soil stiffness, but a growth with the increase in vertical load due to the “P-Δ effect.”  相似文献   

Application of a unified linear yield criterion in plane strain to study the strength theory effect in geotechnical engineering     

Changguang Zhang  Mingming Cai  Junhai Zhao  Lizhou Wu 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(22):758

The plane strain condition is a common, but polyaxial stress state for geotechnical structure designs, in which the selection of an appropriate yield or failure criterion is crucial to reasonably account for the intermediate principal stress. Under plane strain condition, a unified linear yield criterion for seven commonly used geotechnical yield criteria is presented in conjunction with the inductive method. These seven yield criteria considered in this study are the Mohr–Coulomb, Tresca, Drucker–Prager, Mogi–Coulomb, Extended Matsuoka–Nakai, Extended Lade–Duncan criteria, and the Unified Strength Theory. The generalized analytical solutions for earth pressure of retaining walls, critical load of strip foundations as well as stress and displacement of circular tunnels are derived on the basis of the proposed unified yield criterion, and their respective theoretical significance is analyzed. Thereafter, the critical load of strip foundations obtained herein is compared with two numerical results from the literature. Furthermore, the effect of strength theory on result differences of the three typical geotechnical problems by simply selecting constants, which conform to different yield criteria, is explored through a parametric study. It is found that the proposed unified yield criterion is convenient for investigating analytical solutions of the aforementioned geotechnical structures. The strength theory effect due to adopting different yield criteria is considerably significant, which cannot be ignored. Additionally, recommendations are provided on how to make use of these seven yield criteria for an optimum design.  相似文献   

Assessment of water inrush risk using the principal component logistic regression model in the Pandao coal mine,China     

Weitao Liu  Qiang Li  Jiyuan Zhao  Biao Fu 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(16):463

In order to improve the accuracy of floor water inrush assessment, the risk prediction model of floor water inrush was established by combining the principal component logistic regression analysis (PCLRA) and GIS spatial geographic analysis. In this paper, the geological data of Pandao coal mine was taken as the engineering background. First of all, main controlling factors of floor water inrush were determined and quantified. Next, PCLRA was used to determine the weight of each factor and establish the mathematical model for predicting the floor water inrush. And then, GIS’s spatial analysis and data processing function was used to draw related single factor thematic maps. Related thematic maps were weighted superposed to draw a floor water inrush zoning map based on PCLRA mathematical model. The study areas were divided into five levels by Jenks optimization method and vulnerability index initial model. And the corresponding threshold range was determined. The results show that (1) the high sensitivity factors in floor failure depth were added to evaluate the water inrush, and the fault fractal dimension was used to replace the fault structure related factors, and the main controlling factors of floor water inrush are more comprehensive; (2) the fitting degree of PCLRA model is high and the test accuracy is 83.3%; (3) the prediction results were well fitted to the actual position of water inrush (three water inrush points are located in the dangerous area, and two water inrush points are located in the relatively dangerous area).  相似文献   

Development and verification of the comprehensive model for physical properties of hydrate sediment     

Qingchao Li  Yuanfang Cheng  Qiang Li  Ubedullah Ansari  Yuwen Liu  Chuanliang Yan  Chuang Lei 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(12):325

Natural gas hydrate is widely distributed all over the world and may be a potential resource in the near future, whereas hydrate dissociation during the development affects wellbore stability and drilling safety. However, the present modeling of hydrate reservoir parameters ignored the influence of effective stress and only considered the hydrate saturation. In this paper, a series of stress sensitivity experiments for the unconsolidated sandstone were carried out, and the influence of mean effective stress on physical parameters was obtained; a comprehensive model for the physical parameters of hydrate reservoir was developed subsequently. With the help of ABAQUS finite element software, the established comprehensive model was verified by the use of the wellbore stability numerical model of hydrate reservoir. The verification results show that ignoring the effect of mean effective stress on the parameters of hydrate formation aggravates the invasion of drilling fluid into the hydrate formation. Besides, ignoring the stress sensitivity of reservoir physical parameters will underestimate the wellbore instability during hydrate drilling, which will be a threat to the safety of gas hydrate drilling. At the end of the drilling operation, the maximum plastic strain of the model for considering and not considering stress sensitivity was 0.0145 and 0.0138, respectively. Therefore, the established comprehensive model will provide a theoretical support for accurately predicting the engineering geological disasters in hydrate development process.  相似文献